DAGITA
Volatility Trap Alerts
A volatility trap is a match setup where the headline baseline looks stable, but the underlying
probability landscape remains fragile. DAGITA surfaces early-warning signals before kickoff so analysts can
understand when a match may behave unexpectedly.
Common volatility trap patterns
- Dispersion: two outcomes remain close (e.g., home vs draw) right before kickoff.
- Late information sensitivity: injuries, rotations, or tactical shifts that meaningfully change priors.
- Baseline drift: implied probabilities shift without a clean narrative explanation.
- Overconfident narratives: public sentiment anchors to a single story while uncertainty stays high.
How DAGITA presents trap alerts
Instead of a single "prediction", DAGITA emphasizes probability distributions and signal context.
Trap alerts are designed to be auditable, with a public signal log and a track record page.
Goal
Reduce surprise outcomes
Focus
Pre-kick uncertainty